The monthly jobs report garners a great deal of attention from economists, the media, and politicians. However, much more interesting than the national data is the underlying statistics on job creation by state. The bottom line is that there is tremendous variation from state to state in the number of jobs created during the past five years. Here is the change in job openings for eight winners and losers:
% Change in Job Openings (2020-2026)
| Winners | Losers | ||
| Idaho | 21% | Wyoming | -39% |
| Mississippi | 20% | Washington | -36% |
| Oklahoma | 19% | New Mexico | -35% |
| Georgia | 16% | Vermont | -35% |
| Texas | 14% | Oregon | -28% |
| Minnesota | 10% | California | -27% |
| Missouri | 10% | New Hampshire | -27% |
| Ohio | 10% | Wisconsin | -26% |
Particularly interesting is the fact that adjacent states had very different results in some instances. For example, Idaho and Wyoming, the number one winner and top loser, share a border. Similarly, Ohio at +10% is surrounded by Indianna, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky and Michigan, all of whom experienced net losses. Other conflicting combos were Minnesota/Wisconsin, Illinois/Missouri, and Texas/New Mexico.
There is no single overriding explanation for these divergences. However, it is possible to identify some likely causes. First, many of the largest declines took place in the Southwest, California, and the Pacific Northwest. Recall that many companies, particularly in tech industries, hired aggressively during and after the worker shortage that followed the pandemic. The recent declines may simply represent a reversal of that excess enthusiasm. Additionally, these western states may be experiencing the initial impact of AI on tech jobs, particularly for coders. Second, strong job growth reflects internal migration toward states such as Texas, Florida, and Georgia that offer workers lower cost of living, low tax rates, and warmer weather. Population shifts create labor supply and boost consumer demand. Finally, both corporate offices and manufacturing facilities are moving to states that offer lower operating costs, less regulatory friction, and in some cases, tax incentives.
These trends seem likely to persist because regions with strong growth develop scale and momentum that attract other desirable industries. They are also a magnet for talent, capital, and ancillary businesses. In other words, success breeds success.