In 1798, economist Thomas Malthus predicted that population growth would eventually outstrip food production leading to misery, famine, disease, and war. The same fears led to the One-Child Policy that was enforced in China from 1980 until 2015. Oddly enough, most of the world now has the opposite problem.
In the absence of immigration, a country needs a 2.1 fertility rate (number of births per woman) to maintain a stable population. Today, 71% of the world’s population lives in countries with a replacement rate below that level. Here are fertility rates for a sampling of major countries falling below the 2.1 threshold:
| India | 1.94 | Germany | 1.46 |
| Iran | 1.67 | Norway | 1.42 |
| Australia | 1.64 | Canada | 1.33 |
| United States | 1.62 | Japan | 1.23 |
| United Kingdom | 1.54 | China | 1.02 |
| Russa | 1.46 | South Korea | 0.75 |
Not only is China not experiencing a population explosion, the One-Child Policy is expected to result in an 18% decline in its total population by 2050.
Most of the countries at the other end of the spectrum are in Sub-Saharan Africa:
| Somalia | 5.91 | Tanzania | 4.47 |
| Congo | 5.90 | Nigeria | 1.30 |
| Mozambique | 4.62 | Sudan | 4.19 |
The key issue is that economic growth is the sum of population growth and productivity gains. Therefore, to enjoy healthy economic growth, the countries on the first list must rely on either immigration or significant productivity enhancements. Given anti-immigrant sentiment in many places, productivity will have to carry the day. AI provides a strong case for optimism, but major gains in output are certainly not guaranteed.
While the emerging economies have the population wind at their back, they also face many challenges:
- They have young populations which place a financial burden on older income earners.
- Governments face significant and recurring expenditure on basic services such as education and healthcare.
- The high birth rate reduces the number of women in the labor force.
- Rapid population growth generally leads to urbanization resulting in housing shortages, underemployment, and so on.
- Many countries experiencing rapid population growth do not have sufficient resources to sustain it.
I’m not sure which challenge is greater, mature countries with stagnant populations and minor economic growth or rapidly developing countries with their own problems.