One of the most closely watched economic indicators is the number of new jobs created each month. In our divisive political world, this volatile figure creates the opportunity for politicians to either boast about the success of their economic policies or criticize the...
My last post (November 26, 2025) discussed the apparent contradiction that the overall economy seems generally healthy while there are many signs of weakness in the labor market. I do not want to beat this topic to death, but the following graphic adds...
I constantly remind clients and friends not to obsess about the economic outlook because it is never entirely clear, and there are always cross-currents. Today’s labor market may be the poster child for confusion and conflicting data. Why focus on labor anyway? The...
My recent white paper The Most Important Topic in Economics discussed the interplay between population and productivity growth in determining our economic future. I pointed out that the number of annual births in the U.S. currently exceeds the number of deaths slightly, but...
To counteract inflation which peaked at an annual rate of 9% in June of 2022, the Fed increased short term interest rates eleven times between March of 2022 and July of 2023. As inflation began to moderate, it made the first of three...
During the burst of inflation that took place from early 2021 to late in 2023, our Investment Team maintained that a cooling-off in the labor market and resulting moderation in wage growth was a prerequisite for return to more normal increases in consumer...
