I have written about demographics many times because population growth is critical for a healthy economy. Growth in the population comes from two sources. First there is “natural” growth which is the excess of births over deaths. The second factor is immigration. There...
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- Tag: economy
A key element in our recent economic discussions has been the mechanism by which the FED’s interest rate increases are expected to slow the economy, and ultimately, inflation. This process is best described by the acronym HOPE. The first sector of the economy...
Merryn Somerset Webb wrote a fascinating opinion piece for Bloomberg on December 8th that outlines two fundamentally different views of the world. One posits that we will quickly return to the prevailing model of the past twenty years in which the economy and...
After falling for the prior six months, GDP rebounded in the most recent quarter increasing 2.9%. This strength is largely attributable to consumer spending which represents 68% of the overall economy. Despite high rates of inflation, higher mortgage rates, and a drop in...
An important economic statistic is the Personal Savings Rate which is defined as Savings divided by Disposable Personal Income. From the 1960’s through 1982, relatively thrifty Americans consistently saved between 10% and 15% of their incomes. Given a generally strong economy and rising...
The pandemic has provided us with a powerful reminder that unpredictable human behavior makes it very difficult to forecast the economy. You may recall that during the economic contraction associated with the lockdown, there were a variety of forecasts as to the trajectory...