I wrote a white paper in March (U.S. Internal Migration Trends) pointing out that most of the population shifts in the U.S. were toward Sunbelt states that are particularly vulnerable to climate related disasters. Specifically, Texas has logged 186 weather disasters costing $1 billion or more since 1980 with Florida also among the top states at 90. The aggregate cost of the disasters in Texas has been $300 billion. Unfortunately, this caution turned out to be very prophetic given that Helene has caused 215 deaths, a number that is likely to increase significantly over time. While it is very early, the direct cost of recovery from Helene is estimated at $34 billion and total economic damage might be as much as $160 billion.
The incredible trauma experienced by Asheville, N.C. is particularly poignant in that it was viewed as a delightful city that was largely immune to the impact of climate change. Between 1980 and 2009, North Carolina typically experienced only one or two major disasters per year making it an attractive destination. North Carolina’s population has increased by 400,000 since 2020 suggesting that people were either unaware or not concerned about the fact that the number of climate related disasters in that state has recently risen to six or seven per year.
This week, a number of articles posed the interesting question of whether we will begin to see migration away from the coasts and other areas particularly exposed to heat drought, and wildfires. The First Street Foundation estimates that 3.2 million Americans have already migrated from low lying areas and it projects that 7.5 million more might do so in the coming years. A large internal migration raises the possibility of at least two significant consequences. First, it might represent a boom for inland and Northern cities. Second, those left behind are likely to be older and less affluent which will create problems for local and state governments given significant needs coupled with a shrinking tax base.