Very Narrow Stock Market There is an unusual dynamic in the stock market that technical analysts find worrisome. However, since I am the world’s worst market forecaster, I will only outline what is happening and then leave it to others to determine its...
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I have written a number of blogs regarding the mystery as to why large investments in technology have not resulted in accelerated growth in output per hour worked, also known as productivity. Economist Paul Krugman published an opinion piece in the New York...
A common investor mistake involves extrapolation bias which is the strong tendency to project recent trends into the future. In reality, markets and economies tend to be quite cyclical, and regression to the mean is a particularly powerful force. Here are several examples...
I have written many times about weak productivity growth which is of great concern because overall economic growth is equal to the sum of population and productivity growth. Productivity growth is defined as changes in the amount of output for each hour worked....
The following chart provides a breakdown of consumer spending by category for 2019. Spending patterns changed significantly during the pandemic due to the lack of accessibility to many types of services, but this depiction is probably fairly representative of our post-pandemic behavior. (This...
The following chart depicts the relative size through time of major economies around the world. The forecasts were generated by the Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) and are made available by the Visual Capitalist which generously allows subscribers to use its...